About 1 in 5 U.S. children ages 3 to 17 had been diagnosed with a developmental disability by 2023–2024, according to parents surveyed by the federal government. Researchers at CDC's National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) found the share climbed from 16.7% to 20.5% in four years. Benjamin Zablotsky and three NCHS colleagues published the analysis in the October 2026 issue of Pediatrics, and Disability Scoop reported on it Oct. 23, 2026.
The numbers
| Diagnosis | 2019–2020 | 2023–2024 | Relative change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any of the five conditions below | 16.73% | 20.45% | Up 22.2% |
| ADHD | 9.52% | 12.00% | Up 26.1% |
| Autism | 3.14% | 4.47% | Up 42.4% |
| Learning disability | 7.60% | 8.83% | Up 16.2% |
| Other developmental delay | 5.47% | 6.35% | Up 16.1% |
| Intellectual disability | — | — | Up 6.7%, not statistically significant |
All figures come from the NCHS analysis of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS).
How the study worked
The NHIS is a yearly household survey. For each sampled child, a parent or other adult in the home was asked whether a doctor or other health professional had ever said the child had one of these conditions. For learning disability, a school official could also count. The researchers pooled 2019–2024 data on 39,217 children and compared two-year periods.
That design has limits, and the authors spell them out. The diagnoses are reported by parents and aren't checked against medical records. The questions ask whether a child was ever diagnosed, not whether the condition is current. And the survey covers only children ages 3 to 17. NHIS changed which conditions it asks about starting in 2019, so the authors say the overall total can't be compared directly with earlier NHIS estimates.
Where the increases were largest
- Young children and autism. Autism diagnoses among children ages 3 to 5 rose 120.5%, the biggest jump in the study.
- Rural, lower-income and female children. Autism also rose 85.8% among children outside metropolitan areas, 60.8% among children in families below 200% of the federal poverty level, and 58.3% among girls.
- Any developmental disability. The largest relative increases were among non-Hispanic Asian children (73.1%), children ages 3 to 5 (32.3%), children in families at or above 200% of the poverty level (29.5%) and Hispanic children (26.0%). The share rose in every group except non-Hispanic Black children and children outside metropolitan areas, where the change wasn't significant.
- Intellectual disability. The study found no significant change, overall or in any group.
Why the numbers may be rising
The study wasn't built to explain the trend. Zablotsky told Disability Scoop the team believes the new increases could be tied to earlier detection and awareness. The paper also cites earlier research linking such rises to changes in diagnostic criteria and provider practice and to greater awareness among parents and the public. Scott Landes, a Syracuse University sociologist who studies disability, told the outlet that better screening, more awareness and less stigma explain at least part of the rise. He called it "progress in finding and serving disabled children who were always there but were not receiving needed services."
The authors conclude that continued tracking may be critical to judging whether services are adequate and easy to reach, especially for the groups with the fastest growth.
What this means for providers and DSPs
- More children are entering the service pipeline. Children diagnosed today will reach transition age over the next decade. Many states already keep waiting lists for home and community-based services, so a larger group of diagnosed children adds pressure on adult services that are already short of staff.
- Most of the growth is outside intellectual disability. The rise is driven by autism, ADHD and learning disabilities, not by intellectual disability. Whether an autistic young adult without an intellectual disability qualifies for adult I/DD services depends on each state's eligibility rules, so agencies may field more questions from families who don't yet know if they qualify.
- Autism services for young children are under rate pressure. Demand is growing fastest among 3- to 5-year-olds just as several states and health plans are tightening Medicaid ABA rules and rates, including Arizona's proposed limits and Georgia's foster-care rate cut.
- Support needs are getting more varied. More girls and more children outside cities are being diagnosed with autism. Over time, frontline staff will likely support more people whose diagnosis came early, and more families who expect support plans built around it.
- Read the figures carefully. These are parent reports of a past diagnosis, not counts of people in services. They describe a trend in diagnoses, not how many people will need or qualify for paid supports.